Arch Crawford has a financial markets advisory service and has edited a market-timing monthly newsletter since 1977. His site is Crawford Perspectives. He has a background in physics and math, and is a Vietnam veteran.
Hi Molly,I read the Bot report on a plane back from New York last week. It is certainly a head-turner.
Yesterday, i looked at the astro-chart of the New Moon late tonight, and, although there are some disturbing elements, I am not so sure that effects will be quite so devastating.
My job is to predict our stock and commodity markets.
The stock markets have been lifting on mostly bad economic news.
There are several disaster scenarios in the economic/political world condition of which any ONE could sink the current uptrend back into 'double-dip' status [or worse]. And that could happen suddenly & without warning.
The media has been presenting every little econ uptick as realy good news when it is only slightly improved from the last years horrendous numbers. For instance Obama says this morning that the Employment has risen every month for 10 months. But that is only BARELY enough to keep the overall unemployment rate at 9.6% against the factored in increment for those supposedly entering the work force.
The entire market rise from March '09 has been tepid in the extreme and on Low Volume - an extremely unusual occurrence.
At last April market peak, there were 674 new 52-week highs on the NYSE. The highest before yesterday has been 225, about 1/3 as many as at that high, an upside non-confirmation. Yesterday, that improved into the 500's.
My opinion is that the 'spike' up in markets yesterday could be at or near a terminal point in the rally, for the short-intermediate term, if not in it's entirety.
One favorable element is that markets survived the seasonally worst period of the year (Sept-Oct), a 20% probability rating, and has entered the more statistically positive segment which carries into next April.
Other unfavorables: Public sentiment has shifted dramatically into the Bullish camp, while Officers & directors of companies have shifted strongly back to to Selling their own stocks. A really bad balance between Smart money sales and Not so Smart money purchases.
All this information leads me to believe that the Federal Reserve is pushing the stock market higher by actually Buying Stock Index Futures every time they turn weak in price trend. [will that end now with the termination of extreme political pressure?]
The strongest astro-factor Right Now is that ALL planets are within a bit less than Half of the sky! ALL on one side of the Sun. That is the cause of hotter sunspots which are the principle cause of Global Warming. The ZERO Sunspot period inlate '08-early '09 correlated with the Coldest Winter in 15-20 years which 'stunned' the Warming-forecasters.
As for the next powerful Astrological hit, my recommendation would be the Lunar Eclipse on the Winter Solstice [shortest day, longest night - in Northern Hemisphere) December 21. Remember that capital gains are slated to rise as of Jan 1, that may bring in some considerable profit-taking that could get out of hand as in the Flash-Crash last May 6.
By the way, the Mars Uranus Crash Cycle ends in late March 2011, not October. I thought the seasonal patterns would be more toward the 'normal' or worse this year. They were not.
My next Crawford Perspectives newsletter will be out early Monday and will email to you if you wish.
All best,Arch Crawford
